Math Predicts Bad Energy Policy in Texas

The numbers don’t add up in the Texas energy crisis.

Photo by Federico Beccari on Unsplash

Predictable partisan yelling over yet another catastrophe has been detected in Texas. Rather than relying on Google searches and social media, I opted to do some of my own research into ERCOT’s catastrophic failure to secure Texans' reliable energy. ERCOT is specifically tasked with delivering cheap, life-sustaining, reliable energy 100% of the time. The requirement is not 99%, not 99.9%, but 100% of the time. The crisis taking place in Texas should remind us all that energy is not optional. Hopefully, policymakers will use this as a teaching moment and draft future energy policy with reliability and preservation of human life at the top of the list of properties. With this in mind, let’s do some math.

According to ERCOT’s published data:

1. Wind in 2021 is 24.8% of total capacity; Solar 3.8%; total 28.6%.
2. Coal, gas, and nuclear account for 71% of total capacity in 2021.
3. Texas has reduced nuclear capacity by 50%, from 10% in 2020 to 5% in 2021.

ERCOT has presented the following data points about the outage:

1. The total energy shortfall at the time of writing is ~45,000 MW. That’s roughly half of its expected summer capacity.
2. 65% of the shortfall is from fossil fuels.
3. 35% of the shortfall is from wind and solar.

ERCOT published the following data points on their website regarding capacity by source:

1. 25,121 MW of installed wind capacity as of Jan. 2021, the most of any
   state in the nation
2. 3,854 MW of utility-scale installed solar
3. 86,000+ megawatts (MW) of expected capacity for summer 2021 peak demand
4. The means ~57,000 MW will be generated for fossil fuels and nuclear in addition to other trailing sources

Based on this, we can assume:

1. Wind and solar are disproportionately represented in the shortfall.
2. Renewables delivered ~56% of their expected load during the outate
3. Fossil fuels produced ~65% of their expected load.
4. An audit from ERCOT is needed.

The provided numbers really don’t make sense. There are conflicting reports that wind, for example, fell to 8% due to a lack of wind. Yet ERCOT’s statement would have us believe that wind never fell below 50%.

Looking at their real-time statistics on Feb 17th, 2021, at 4 PM PST, total wind and solar generation is ~3,500 MW. Compared to the previous month’s data, this number seems to line up with the company's information. However, wind generation levels in the late night and early morning hours have sustained lows of ~750 MW! I could only find a single instance in January 2021 where the generation was below 800 MW, which was an extreme outlier. However, a predictable decrease in a generation forms an S-shaped curve every day as wind fluctuates.

This paints a picture of greatly diminished renewable generation at the very time people need it most. Wind turbines, as we all know, can not generate power when there is no wind. A cold air pocket that causes freezing temperatures combined with a lack of wind would predict near-zero generation for a period of time. I would expect ERCOT to issue a statement that includes an S-shaped curve in wind production over time, reflecting both the lack of wind and freezing temperatures. Their own real-time data provided on their website shows precisely this.

While many are quick to blame Texans for their pride and independence for this outage, another more obvious reason is the lack of nuclear power. Nuclear power is the most reliable, safest, cleanest form of energy known to man. Its safety record and resilience to extreme weather events are unparalleled. Nuclear serves as a valuable backup source that ERCOT has decommissioned. There must be an investigation into why this decision was made and why ERCOT thought the laws of thermal dynamics would cease to exist inside its wind and fossil fuel generation sites.

Another source for ERCOT’s failure is the lack of investment in protecting critical infrastructure and insulating plants from extreme events. ERCOT has made enormous profits backed by government subsidies to expand wind and solar generation. This provides little financial incentive to invest in protecting the grid from catastrophic failure. Policymakers and ERCOT executives need to learn to walk and chew gum at the same time. Their focus on renewables must be tempered with the understanding that we can’t spend all of the tax dollars and revenues on wind and solar generation. Until we live in a world with infinite resources, a more mature balance that protects human life must be struck.